JPMorgan Warns of Potential Bitcoin Decline After Halving
A research report from JPMorgan on Wednesday predicts a decrease in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) following the reward halving event.
With ongoing political conflicts between Iran and Israel and the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, Bitcoin saw a drop of 4.2% to $61,151 in early Thursday trading.
Similarly, Ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency, also experienced a decline of over 4.4% to $2,960.
The reward halving event, which occurs every four years, reduces the rate of growth in Bitcoin supply. This event is predicted to take place around April 19–20.
Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s market value fell to $1.2 trillion. CoinMarketCap reports that Bitcoin has a market dominance of 53.84%.
The bank predicts a decrease in value for the biggest cryptocurrency globally following the halving event due to the market still being in a state of overbought conditions.
This analysis is based on their examination of open interest in bitcoin futures and the associated price movements.
Cryptocurrency is currently priced at around $61,200, higher than the bank’s comparison to gold at $45,000 and its estimated production cost of $42,000 after halving.
Throughout history, the bitcoin production cost has served as a reference point for BTC prices in the crypto world.
Despite the recent increase in the crypto market, JPMorgan points out that venture capital funding for this sector is still low.
The mining industry will see significant changes due to the halving event, with unprofitable miners leaving the network and a decrease in the hash rate expected.
Analysts predict consolidation among bitcoin miners, especially favoring publicly listed companies.
Post-halving, mining firms could consider relocating to areas with cheaper energy expenses like Latin America or Africa to make up for losses from inefficient rigs.
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Leading up to the halving event, there has been a significant increase in Google searches related to the halving, reaching record levels and surpassing search interest in the 2020 halving.
Google search trends indicate that interest in the halving is higher than interest in other popular cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin.
Google Trends notes that a value of 100 translates to peak popularity for the term. The current search interest for the phrase Bitcoin Halving on Google Trends is at a score of 45.
Google forecasts that this score will hit 100 by the end of the month, indicating peak popularity for the term.
The Bitcoin halving is a reduction in rewards given to miners, with the upcoming 2024 event cutting block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
This halving is expected to take place around 4:00 a.m. Universal time (UTC) on April 20, as indicated by the Cointelegraph countdown timer.
According to Google Trends, Nigeria, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and Cyprus are showing the highest interest in Bitcoin halving.
The high interest in Bitcoin halving in these countries could indicate a growing awareness and adoption of cryptocurrency as a legitimate form of investment.
Stay updated on news about halving events and how they may impact the value of cryptocurrencies in the market.